William Katz:  Urgent Agenda

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THAT HIDDEN VOTE – AT 9:58 A.M. ET:  We noted this development last night at "Short Takes."  The discussion is growing.   From the Washington Examiner: 

PHILADELPHIA — Advisors to Hillary Clinton are worried that Democratic white men are lying to pollsters and secretly plan to vote for Republican Donald Trump.

"I worry that there is a bit of a secret Trump vote," said influential pollster Celinda Lake.

She has proof revealed in polls that find more white male support when live people are doing the interviewing and less support for Clinton in anonymous online surveys.

"The pattern is in the online surveys, even if you control for demographics, Trump does three to nine points better than in telephone surveys. So it really does suggest that there is a secret vote for Donald Trump," said Lake.

She said that it happened in polling for President Obama.

"We've had this phenomenon before. We had a secret vote against Barack Obama. White Democrats who thought they were talking to an African American (survey questioner) were more supportive than white Democrats who were talking to whites, or thought they were talking to a white interviewer," said Lake.

She also said that the white male, blue collar worker is a ripe target for Trump. "Trump can also mobilize some voters, some white downscale voters who also haven't voted for awhile," she said.

COMMENT:  Others are making the same argument.  We'll know more about it as polling continues.  But remember, Trump is not the most likeable guy in the world.  He might turn off his own base, just as he has turned off a serious chunk of his own party. 

July 26, 2016